Olivers Insight

Introduction “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: I’m from the Government, and I’m here to help.” – Ronald Reagan “We’re going to build factories again, put people to work making real products for American families, made with the hands of American workers. Together we will protect the wages of American workers…and…

Introduction It’s often said that shares climb a wall of worry. And with good reason. The next chart shows the Australian All Ords price index since 1900 and despite wars, pandemics, and economic calamities, it’s managed to pick itself up and move on to new highs providing solid long term returns for investors. Australian shares…

Introduction Changes in the value of the Australian dollar are important as they impact Australia’s international export competitiveness and the cost of imports, including that of going on an overseas holiday. They are also important for investors as they directly impact the value of international investments and indirectly impact the performance of domestic assets like…

Introduction There has been a wall of worry for investors over the last year but as is often the case share markets climbed it. This resulted in another financial year of strong investment returns in 2023-24. But can it continue? Key themes – lower inflation was the big one Investment markets were hit hard in…

Introduction I have now been in the investment world for 40 years. I first looked at the lessons I learned in 2019. But they haven’t changed much since. Much has happened over the last 40 years with each new crisis invariably labelled “unparalleled” and a “defining event”: the 1987 crash; the US savings and loan…

Introduction Since the European Union parliamentary election results were released just over a week ago, seeing a rise in support for far-right parties and French President Macron’s surprise decision to call parliamentary elections, Eurozone shares have had a fall of 4.2%, French shares fell 6.2% and the gap between the French and German 10 year…

– but the tension between high rates and the chronic housing shortage remains Introduction National average home prices rose another 0.8% in May, pushing them further into record territory. However, the gains remain highly diverse. Conditions in Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide continue to be very strong, helped by relatively lower levels of supply evident in…

Introduction It’s nearly four years since the tumultuous 2020 US presidential election and now the next one is almost upon us. So far investment markets have paid little attention to it or have just focussed on the upside (lower taxes and less regulation) if Trump returns. But that may change as it draws near –…

Introduction It’s now two years since the RBA first started to raise interest rates resulting in the biggest tightening cycle since the late 1980s. Rates have gone much higher and stayed high for much longer than I thought would be the case as Australian households proved more resilient than expected thanks to a combination of…

Another surplus, but bigger medium term deficits with more big spending, including on a “Future Made in Australia” Introduction The Budget is aimed at trying to lower inflation in the near term but supporting Government priorities including formally launching a “Future Made in Australia” (FMIA) over the medium term. In terms of the former, there…