Olivers Insight

– five reasons not to be too concerned Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points The gradual shift of central banks including the Fed and RBA towards an exit from monetary easing has caused some volatility in investment markets. We continue to expect the first RBA rate…

Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points The shift from high inflation to low inflation has been a key tailwind for investment returns over the last 40 years – in particular it has allowed capital growth in excess of growth in earnings and rents. A long-term stabilisation…

– here are seven reasons for optimism Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points With growth of 1.8% in the March quarter, Australian GDP is now back above its pre pandemic level. While uncertainties remain – including around the latest coronavirus outbreak in Victoria – there are…

Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points The Government now expects the Federal budget deficit to peak at $161bn this financial year (down from $214bn in October’s Budget) and fall to $107bn in 2021-22. The windfall to the budget from stronger growth is being spent on extra…

Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points Geopolitical issues generate much interest but don’t necessarily have a significant impact on markets But geopolitical risks are higher than prior to the GFC reflecting three big themes: a populist backlash against economic rationalist policies; the falling relative power of…

Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points Australian home prices are currently in a cyclical upswing which likely has further to go into 2022. However, the longer-term bull market, that has seen above trend growth in property prices since the mid-1990s, may be close to an end…

Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points Starting point valuations – like yields and price to earnings multiples – are a key driver of potential medium term investment returns. For growth assets it’s often more complicated with, eg, the level of interest rates playing a big role.…

Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist takes a look at the outlook for official interest rates in Australia following the RBA’s latest monthly board meeting. The key points are as follows: The RBA left the cash rate at 0.1% at its April meeting. While the economy is recovering faster than expected…

Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist looks at the main questions investors commonly have regarding the investment outlook in a simple Q&A format.. The key points are as follows: Global recovery is on track. Vaccines are working. JobKeeper’s end won’t derail Australia’s recovery. Inflation could become an issue in the medium…

Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist takes a look at where we are in the investment cycle. The key points are as follows: The history of cyclical bull markets in shares suggests that the rebound since last March still has a way to go. But it’s normal for the second 12…