Olivers Insight

Back in January when the bushfires were raging, I feared Australia’s luck had ran out. But right now, I thank god I live in The Lucky Country! Donald Horne’s original conception of the term in the 1964 book of the same name about Australia being run by “second rate people who share its luck” always…

This is an update of a note I wrote last November, but after the recent plunge in shares and the associated 10% or so loss in balanced growth superannuation funds through the March quarter, it’s particularly relevant now. When share markets plunge as they did into March the standard questions are: What caused the fall?…

The blanket coverage of coronavirus and its impact on the economy can lead to a lot of confusion right now. Some reports are hopeful of anti-viral drugs, others say a vaccine is at least a year away. There is talk of curve flattening but still rising cases and deaths. There is news of an easing…

Along with massive fiscal stimulus globally to deal with the impact of coronavirus shutdowns on the economy, the last month or so has also seen massive monetary easing – with the latest being the US Federal Reserve expanding its emergency lending program to $US2.3 trillion. The economic shutdowns are necessary to slow the spread of…

Along with the horrible human consequences, the coronavirus pandemic is having a huge impact on the way we live and as a result investment markets. This has raised a whole bunch of questions: why does a big part of the economy have to go into “hibernation”? how long might it be for? how big will…

The Australian housing market was boosted from mid-last year by the combination of the Federal election removing the threat of changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax, rate cuts and regulatory easing. So, after a 10% drop in average capital city prices into mid last year – the biggest fall in property prices for…

The coronavirus crisis is first and foremost a human crisis and my thoughts are particularly with those on the front line of this battle. But, of course, its impacting many aspects of life at present, including investment markets. Successful investing can be really difficult in times like the present when markets have collapsed into a…

Introduction Coronavirus continues to rattle investment markets as the number of new cases outside China continues to rise posing increasing uncertainty over the impact on economic activity. And its impact has intensified following the collapse of OPEC discipline causing a further plunge in oil prices raising concerns about debt servicing for oil producers. From their…

The plunge in share markets over the last week has generated much coverage and consternation. This is understandable given the rapidity of the falls – with US shares having their fastest 10% fall from an all-time high on record – and the uncertainty around the coronavirus (Covid-19) and its impact on economic activity. From their…

The past week has seen a renewed escalation in concern that the coronavirus outbreak (Covid-19) has become or is becoming a global pandemic. This is first and foremost a human crisis and our thoughts are with all those affected and those trying to combat the outbreak. Naturally though investment markets are starting to become increasingly…