Vee Rao

– why investors need to be aware of the psychology of investing Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction Up until the 1980s the dominant theory was that financial markets were efficient – in other words all relevant information was reflected in asset prices in a rational manner.…

Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points Australian home prices fell another 1.6% in August and are now down by 3.5% from their high. Rising mortgage rates are the main driver and there is likely more to go. We continue to expect a 15-20% top to bottom…

Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction Shares remain vulnerable in the short term. They had a nice rebound from their June lows into their mid-August highs recovering just over half of their earlier decline (which was -24% for US shares and -16% for Australian shares) helped by…

Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital “Productivity isn’t everything, but, in the long run, it is almost everything”. Paul Krugman Introduction A hot topic in recent years in Australia amongst economists and policy makers has been the slowdown in productivity growth. This matters because as Paul Krugman points…

Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Like a circle in a spiral, like a wheel within a wheel, Never ending or beginning, on an ever spinning wheel. As the images unwind, like the circles that you find, In the windmills of your mind. Introduction Cycles are part of…

Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction As widely expected, the RBA has increased the cash rate again by 0.5% taking it to 1.85%. This is more than double the 0.75% rate that applied before the pandemic started. The 175 basis points in rate hikes since April is…

– higher medium term return potential (assuming inflation is tamed) Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction The start of this year has been painful for investors with sharp losses in shares and bonds, dragging most superannuation funds into negative returns for the last financial year. And yet…

Why central banks must focus on getting inflation back down Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction I grew up in the 1970s and it was fun – Abba, Elvis, Wings, JPY, flares, cool cars, etc. But economically it was a mess. Inflation surged and so did unemployment.…

Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points 2021-22 was a rough year for investors as high inflation, rising interest rates and recession fears impacted. Shares could still fall further as interest rates continue to rise and recession risks are high. However, inflation pressures are showing some signs…

…it’s not as bad as it looks, but it’s still an issue Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction If Australia has an Achilles’ heel it’s the high level of household debt that has accompanied surging home prices over the last 30 years. Of course, in the absence…