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– a “magic election pudding” of more spending and lower deficits Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP CapitalDiana Mousina – Senior Economist, AMP Capital A budget windfall has allowed both more spending and lower budget deficits, with the 2022-23 budget deficit expected to be $80bn (down from $99bn in…

Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points Oil prices have spiked on the anticipation and now reality of restrictions on Russian oil supply from the war in Ukraine. This is driving a sharp rise in petrol prices which will hit household spending power. Fortunately, there is an…

– and why are Australian shares holding up better? Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points The situation regarding Ukraine is at high risk of getting worse before it gets better for investment markets. The key is how much Russian energy exports are disrupted & whether NATO…

Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points Ukraine tensions have escalated with Russia ordering troops into Ukraine regions already occupied by Russian separatists. Share markets are at high risk of more downside on fear of further escalation and uncertainty about sanctions/gas supply to Europe. The history of…

– inflation, interest rates, Russia & Ukraine, the risk of a share crash, house prices and other issues Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points Inflation will likely slow later this year but remain well above pre-pandemic levels over the medium term. Wages growth is likely to…

Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points Shares have had a good rebound but could still fall further in the short term as risks remain high around monetary tightening and geopolitical tensions. However, a deep bear market is unlikely as US, global and Australian recessions are unlikely…

– but remains “patient” on rates. We expect the first rate hike in August Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points The RBA will end quantitative easing this month. While it now sees unemployment falling below 4% and higher inflation it is prepared to be “patient” for…

Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Share markets have fallen in recent weeks on the back of worries about inflation, monetary tightening, the Omicron disruption and the rising risk of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Its too early to say markets have bottomed. Key things for investors to…

Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points Inflation is placing increasing pressure on major central banks to remove monetary stimulus. Inflation & rising interest rates will likely contribute to more volatile & constrained investment returns this year. The long-term downtrend in inflation and interest rates since the…

Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points 2021 saw strong investment returns with low volatility. 2022 is likely to see more constrained returns with increased volatility. Watch: coronavirus and vaccines; inflation; the US mid-term elections; China issues; Russian tensions with Ukraine and the west; & the Australian…