Olivers Insight

Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Introduction Scepticism about China’s economic success has been an issue for years. But it’s intensified lately on the back of slowing growth, property problems, high debt and falling long term growth potential with talk that China is “teetering on the brink” and President…

– and why it might be hard Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Introduction “Productivity isn’t everything, but, in the long run, it is almost everything”. Paul Krugman, Economist “The only thing that we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history.” Georg Hegel, Philosopher Outgoing Reserve…

– five reasons why we could still avoid recession Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Introduction Over the last 18 months there has been much talk of recession globally and more recently in Australia. But, despite mild technical recessions (ie, two consecutive quarters of falling GDP in a row)…

– why you need to know the difference between leading and lagging economic indicators Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Introduction I reckon many must be confused about the current economic situation. We hear constant talk about how high interest rates and cost of living pressures are causing economic…

Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Introduction A few years ago, I put together a list of key common-sense points that may be useful in terms of borrowing to finance a home along with broader personal finance and investment decisions we make. Given the surge in interest rates lately,…

Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Introduction he past financial year saw a solid rebound in investment returns, after the negative returns of the 2021-22 financial year. This note reviews the past 12 months in investment markets and looks at the outlook. Inflation worries start to recede Just as…

Why the worry? What’s the risk? And what would it mean for investors? Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Introduction The past few weeks have seen lots of talk again about a recession – particularly in Australia. This has been a recurring theme over the last year or so…

Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Introduction From their lows last year, global and US shares are up 17% and Australian shares are up 13% as investors have been buoyed by evidence of peaking inflation, anticipation that central banks are near the top, resilient growth and profits and enthusiasm…

– rising prosperity (and smashed avocado) versus housing affordability Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Australia’s property fascination Australians have long had a fascination with property. It’s evident in waves of speculative booms and busts that periodically grip our cities. For example, this was observed over four decades ago…

Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction Over the last 10 and 20 years, returns from Australian unlisted commercial property have averaged 9% pa. This in part reflected the search for decent income bearing investments by investors in response to falling interest rates & bond yields that pushed…