Olivers Insight

– return to surplus with fastest improvement since end of WW2, cost of living help but structural deficits remain (albeit smaller) Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMPDiana Mousina – Deputy Chief Economist, AMP Introduction This Budget yet again benefits from a huge revenue windfall allowing a surplus this year…

Prices look to have bottomed as the supply shortfall dominates, but watch rates and unemployment Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction Yet again the Australian residential property market is surprising with its resilience and defying forecasts for sharp falls. After falling 9.1% from their high in April…

– it’s not clear the proposed reforms will lead to a better outcome for the Australian economy Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction The unveiling of the independent Review of the RBA – “An RBA fit the future” – has received much attention with talk of a…

Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction Every so often the degree of uncertainty around investment markets surges and that’s been the case for more than a year now reflecting the combination of high inflation, rapid interest rate hikes, the high and rising risk of recession which has…

Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction From their high in April to their low last month national average home prices have fallen 9.1% making it their biggest fall in CoreLogic records going back to 1980. Capital city average prices were down 9.7% which is their second biggest…

– what it means for investors? Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction Shares have hit turbulence again with worries about inflation, interest rates, recession and, now, problems in US banks. After rallying strongly at the start of the year the US share market has reversed much of…

Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction In 1981 on a holiday with my parents to Hawaii we got into a discussion with some Americans about their new President, Ronald Reagan, and they said he had to deliver some tough economic medicine after years of policy mismanagement. At…

Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction Shares had a strong start to the year seeing gains into early February around or above what we expect for the year as a whole. But we still expect that it will be a volatile year given that: the process of…

Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction The RBA raised its cash rate by another 0.25% taking it to 3.35%. This is the ninth consecutive rate hike in a row over ten months totalling 325 basis points and exceeds the 2002-2008 tightening cycle (of 300 basis points over…

Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction Since the March 2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) low in share markets, Australian shares are up 138%, compared to a 310% gain in global shares in local currency terms and a 500% gain in US shares. Australian and global shares Source:…